How the Visa‑Free Regime Is Changing Tourism in China: Growth, New Routes and Future Prospects

Introduction

Since 15 September 2025, Russians can enter China without a visa for up to thirty days. The original deadline was set for mid‑2026, but it was later extended to the end of 2027. In just a year and a half, this simplified regime has become a strong driver of inbound tourism and has reshaped the demand profile.

Growth of tourist flow after the visa‑free regime

According to the border service of the FSB, in the first half of 2026 the number of Russian tourists in China is approaching one million, about 60 % higher than a year earlier. At the same time, the overall volume of outbound trips by Russians grew only 8‑9 %, and almost all the extra demand fell on three destinations – Vietnam, China and Egypt. Estimates from the analytical service ATOR suggest that by the end of 2026 the Russian‑to‑China tourist flow could be 2.5 times larger than the previous year.

Tour operators report different growth rates, reflecting their original specialisation. Small firms that barely dealt with China before are seeing sales rise three‑ to four‑fold, while the big players with established programmes record a steadier, modest increase of five‑to‑fifty percent. For example, one operator noted a growth of more than three times, another about ten times, and a third roughly forty percent.

How travelers’ preferences are changing

Earlier most Russians heading to China chose Hainan Island for its beaches. Now demand is shifting toward mainland itineraries: major cities, nature parks and guided tours are gaining traction. Operators increasingly pair a beach stay on Hainan with trips across the continent, offering “multi‑day” tours that let a single vacation cover both seaside and megacities.

A vivid illustration of this strategy is the launch of direct flights from Siberia and the Urals to Hainan without a stopover in Moscow. The cheaper connection is expected to make the island more appealing to residents of those regions and to open up combined programmes that include mainland excursions.

Outlook for the visa‑free regime

On the sidelines of the SCO summit in Bishkek, the Russian president suggested turning the reciprocal visa‑free arrangement into a permanent one. He said that in the first half of 2026 the tourist flow had already risen 43 % thanks to the current scheme. The Chinese side has not issued an official response yet, but statistics show that hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens have already passed through Shanghai border checkpoints.

If the visa‑free regime were locked in without a time limit, it could become a foundation for further tourism growth and also boost the flow of Chinese visitors to Russia – China remains the biggest source of foreign guests for the Russian market.

Trends in mass and affordable tourism

The ATOR analytical centre points out that traditional tourism models are “closing” under the new reality. Two interrelated trends are emerging:

1. Mass market – rising demand makes it possible to create cheaper, high‑volume products aimed at a broad audience. Operators are expanding “affordable” tour lines, cutting prices by streamlining itineraries and using direct flights.
2. Combined trips – travelers increasingly want variety within a single holiday: beach, city, nature. This fuels the development of flexible programmes where part of the time is spent on Hainan and the rest in Beijing, Shanghai or national parks.

These tendencies are reinforced by the growth of operators offering an “open” ticket that lets travellers change dates and destinations inside China without extra penalties. Such flexibility appeals especially to those who want to adapt plans to weather or personal preferences.

What to expect next

Extending the visa‑free regime to the end of 2027 has already created conditions for sustainable growth in tourist numbers. If negotiations on a permanent visa‑free arrangement succeed, China could become one of the most open destinations for Russian tourists. Operators, in turn, will see new opportunities: more direct flights from Russian regions, expanded combined programmes, and further price reductions driven by mass demand.

For travelers this means more choices, more flexible planning and, ultimately, lower prices. For the tourism industry it’s a chance to strengthen its market position and build long‑term partnerships with Chinese counterparts.

Based on materials from: trn-news.ru, atorus.ru.